How the US Employer Benefits Market will Transform by 2030
The future of employer-sponsored health benefits is on track for a radical reinvention. Based on insights across the industry, here’s what the landscape just may look like by 2030:
2/3 of Employers will Evaluate Switching Health Plans
About two-thirds of employers plan to switch carriers in the next four years, signaling growing dissatisfaction with traditional offerings—driven by demands for cost transparency, lower premiums, and better satisfaction (Roundstone Insurance).
12 Million Lives will Migrate into Innovative Plan Designs
McKinsey projects that 12 million employer-plan members—roughly 7% of the commercial market—will transition to new, more flexible health benefit models by 2030 (McKinsey & Company, Roundstone Insurance).
$500M in Value will Shift to Alternative Funding Models
Employers are increasingly turning to alternative funding approaches—like group captives, reference-based pricing, dynamic co-pay models, and virtual-first benefit designs—to gain control, flexibility, and cost containment (Roundstone Insurance). This represents a $500 million market opportunity (FJA).
Employers will Save 10% or More as a Result
These innovative benefits are expected to deliver at least 10% in savings, while enhancing the overall member experience (McKinsey & Company).
Why These Changes Matter
Trend Why It’s Significant 12M members moving to innovative models Marks a rapid shift away from traditional insurance models ≥10% savings Signals employer focus on cost containment and value High carrier-switch intent Reflects a demand for plan transparency and customization Rise of alternative models Demonstrates a strategic turn toward control and innovation Digital adoption Empowers both employers and employees through smarter decision-making
What You Can Do Now
If you're advising or managing employer benefits, consider:
Exploring alternative plan structures—like defined contribution models, virtual-first designs, or group captives.
Investing in digital platforms that offer transparency and enhanced decision-making for employees.
Monitoring carrier offerings closely, anticipating shifts toward innovative models.
Monitoring regulatory and market developments to stay ahead of the change curve.
